The Effect of a Parcel-Aggregated Cropping Structure Mapping Method in Irrigation-Water Estimation in Arid Regions—A Case Study of the Weigan River Basin in Xinjiang

Effective management of agricultural water resources in arid regions relies on precise estimation of irrigation-water demand. Most previous studies have adopted pixel-level mapping methods to estimate irrigation-water demand, often leading to inaccuracies when applied in arid areas where land salinization is severe and where poorly growing crops cause the growing area to be smaller than the sown area. To address this issue and improve the accuracy of irrigation-water demand estimation, this study utilizes parcel-aggregated cropping structure mapping. We conducted a case study in the Weigan River Basin, Xinjiang, China. Deep learning techniques, the Richer Convolutional Features model, and the bilayer Long Short-Term Memory model were applied to extract parcel-aggregated cropping structures. By analyzing the cropping patterns, we estimated the irrigation-water demand and calculated the supply using statistical data and the water balance approach. The results indicated that in 2020, the cultivated area in the Weigan River Basin was 5.29 × 105 hectares, distributed over 853,404 parcels with an average size of 6202 m2. Based on the parcel-aggregated cropping structure, the estimated irrigation-water demand ranges from 25.1 × 108 m3 to 30.0 × 108 m3, representing a 5.57% increase compared to the pixel-level estimates. This increase highlights the effectiveness of the parcel-aggregated cropping structure in capturing the actual irrigation-water requirements, particularly in areas with severe soil salinization and patchy crop growth. The supply was calculated at 24.4 × 108 m3 according to the water balance approach, resulting in a minimal water deficit of 0.64 × 108 m3, underscoring the challenges in managing agricultural water resources in arid regions. Overall, the use of parcel-aggregated cropping structure mapping addresses the issue of irrigation-water demand underestimation associated with pixel-level mapping in arid regions. This study provides a methodological framework for efficient agricultural water resource management and sustainable development in arid regions.