Methodology for Early Prediction of Single-Phase Ground Faults in Distribution Networks

The article presents the results of the development of a methodology for forecasting single-phase ground faults in medium-voltage overhead lines, based on the analysis of emergency events that occurred in the Kaliningrad region from 2018 to 2023. The statistical studies carried out made it possible to estimate the number of different types of faults in the distribution network, as well as to group all occurred cases according to their development scenarios. A correlation between weather conditions in various combinations and the probability of single-phase ground faults occurring has been identified. To predict systematic faults, it is proposed to use the identified relationship between the occurrence of a neutral point displacement and the subsequent single-phase ground fault (SPGF). Previously, this parameter of the electrical network mode was not considered for prediction of single-phase faults. To determine the level of single-phase ground fault current, it is proposed to use the relationship identified in the study between the zero-sequence current in the previous neutral displacement mode and the single-phase ground fault current. Unlike existing prediction methods in distribution networks, the proposed method is based on a comprehensive analysis of possible causes of faults. It covers both systematic faults, which can be predicted by monitoring the electrical parameters of the electrical network, and non-systematic faults caused by external factors.