Application of Deterministic Multiple Linear Regression and Stochastic Analysis Through Monte Carlo Simulation to Model Loan Consumption Assuming Kenyan Data

The main focus of this survey is to examine the key determinants of loan consumption in Kenya, with a keen focus on variables such as monthly expenditure per adult, deposits, economic strength index, and diverse economic opportunities. The study's target population is Kenyan citizens aged 18 years and above. The study obtains data from the Kenya national census, aggregated at the county level. The literature review section presents sufficient support for the study’s hypothesis. In particular, the authors highlight Kenya as a country with one of the highest loan consumption in Africa, which plays as a motivation for conducting this survey. The survey methodology involves the use of quantitative analysis using descriptive statistics like tables, graphs and charts, deterministic multiple linear regression, and stochastic analysis through Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the survey show that monthly expenditure per adult, deposits, and economic strength index have a significant impact on loan consumption amount; that is, R-squared is equal to 0.88. The implication of this survey is based on its contribution to the understanding of loan consumption behaviors in Kenya, presenting relevant insights for policymakers, financial institutions, and other stakeholders in the lending and borrowing processes. The outcome has the potential to inform loan structure policies to enhance the promotion of responsible and sustainable loan consumption.