Do Seasonality and Latitude Dictate the Formation of Strong or Weak Volcanic Eruption Plumes?

Abstract In this study, we propose a method to predict the classification of the eruption plume types: “strong plumes” and “weak plumes”. Our method reproduces the general features that the eruption plume types depend on, both the meteorological conditions and eruption conditions, and successfully reproduces the classification of the plume types for historical eruption events. Application of the method to Monte Carlo simulations revealed that eruption plumes at a low latitude tend to form strong plumes due to weak ambient winds, whereas eruption plumes at a mid latitude tend to form weak plumes due to the strong ambient winds associated with the jet stream. The simulation also revealed that mid‐latitude eruption plumes tend to be strong plumes in the summer when ambient winds are lowered by a weakening and poleward movement of the jet stream.