Child Abuse Incidences Per Child Year Predicted from the Available Average Incidence Combined with Foreign Incidences Per Child Year: Towards a New Policy

Child abuse is a worldwide recognized serious problem. Reliable child abuse incidences, preferably per child year, are fundamental for a sound detection and prevention program. Unfortunately, in most countries where child abuse data is available, incidences are not determined per child year but as an average over the child age range. In this paper we suggest a possible "next-best" solution for deriving child abuse incidences per child year when only an average value is available in an area or country. As method, we combined the country's measured average incidence with available (foreign) incidences per child year. The country's next-best incidences per child year will be estimated from its average, multiplied by the foreign incidences per child year divided by the foreign average. As results, we calculated the next-best Dutch age-dependent incidences by combining the Dutch average value with US and Ontario age-related incidences. We found comparable results for infants above 1 year and marked differences for children <1 year, likely due to cultural differences between the US and Ontario. In conclusion, next-best age-related child abuse incidences are obtainable in large areas or countries by choosing a smaller but representative region, the latter estimated from Ontario-data as ≥210,000 inhabitants, and establishing as perfectly as possible the optimal infra structure. A future perspective towards a new policy could be to initiate and stimulate this approach in the various European Union and United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child member states.