Towards more realistic stochastic modelling of leakage in water distribution systems

ABSTRACT A new stochastic model is developed to predict leak types and sizes in water distribution systems. By linking records of actual failures in water networks with new tools for stochastic modelling, the study provides more accurate estimates of network leakage behaviour. District metered areas (DMAs) have been adopted internationally as best practice for monitoring and controlling leakage, with the infrastructure leakage index (ILI) as the main performance indicator. The leakage exponent (N1), which quantifies the relationship between leakage rate and pressure, is a key parameter in describing DMA leakage behaviour. After analysing thousands of stochastic networks for different combinations of pipe material and ILI, the study found that different pipe materials have distinct leakage exponent distributions. Iron and asbestos cement (AC) pipes display N1 values close to 0.5, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipes have the highest N1 values, and polyethylene (PE) lies between PVC and iron/AC. The study further showed that current guidelines linking ILI to N1 for different pipe materials depart substantially from the observed results, indicating that these guidelines may need to be updated. The study provides a tool for more realistic modelling of leakage that offers valuable insights into the behaviour of leakage in different pipe materials.