Nexus between Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Household Loans and Savings in Bulgaria

The goal of this article is to analyze the impact of household savings and household loans on gross fixed capital formation in Bulgaria. The research is carried out on the basis of quarterly data for the 2010-2023 period. The sources of the data are the National Statistical Institute (NSI) and the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB). The algorithm of the empirical research includes: checking for stationarity by means of the extended Dickey-Fuller test; determining the optimal lag of the model; Johansen cointegration test; specification of vector error correction model (VECM). As a result of the research, it has been established that there is a long-term relationship between the variables gross fixed capital formation, household savings and household loans. At the same time, about 39.2% of the disequilibrium between the studied variables in a certain quarter is compensated in the next one.