Energy Transition Policy of the Mexican Electricity Sector: A Representation in Terms of the Theory of Change

Energy transition in the electricity sector is central to limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Countries around the world rely on official planning documents, such as strategies, special programs, and action plans, to guide these efforts. However, there are few systematic approaches and tools that can help policy makers determine comprehensiveness, coherence, consistency, and coordination when designing these planning documents. This represents a risk to meet energy transition and climate change goals if the relationships of policies and actions included in these documents are not addressed properly. To this end, this paper proposes an approach to model hierarchical relationships using the theory of change, while causal relationships are allocated using policy makers’ experience (yet can also be exogenously allocated using other models). As a case study, this work investigates Mexico’s energy transition policy of the electricity sector over the 2013–2018 period. The results show that Mexico’s official planning documents lack a good design since most policies and actions are not articulated in the right sequence and privilege clean centralized and distributed generation and energy efficiency, while others related to the modernization of electrical grids and climate and environmental policies are barely included.