The 2024 Mw 7.0 Wushi Earthquake in Southern Tianshan Convergent Zone: Finite-Fault Model for the Coseismic Rupture and Aftershock

Abstract On 22 January 2024, an Mw 7.0 earthquake struck the oblique thrust Maidan fault (MDF) at the boundary between the Southern Tianshan and Tarim basin, making it the largest earthquake on the fault in the last 100 yr. Here, we use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) to retrieve coseismic and aftershock deformation caused by the earthquake and then constrain fault geometry and slip distribution. Line-of-sight InSAR observations revealed a coseismic deformation area of 70 km × 60 km with a maximum value of ∼0.8 m and also captured the deformation from the aftershock event seven days after the mainshock. Our preferred two-segment coseismic fault model ruptures the MDF locked segment and deeper regions, exhibiting a homogeneous elliptical rupture with a maximum slip of ∼2.7 m on a rectangular plane with a dip angle of ∼60°, a length of ∼55 km, and a depth between 5 and 20 km. The aftershock formed a rupture plane of 10×8 km2 with the maximum slip of ∼0.3 m, causing slip in the shallow area of the fault where the coseismic ruptures were smaller, and supplementarily released the stress in the shallow part of the fault. The strong earthquake (Mw 7) return period on MDF inferred from the interseismic slip rate is 170–200 yr. Oblique thrust slip revealed by the slip distribution model is the result of long-term absorption of oblique convergence strain in the Southern Tianshan by the MDF and then concentrated release. The 2024 event resulted in a 60 km unruptured segment on the MDF being in a stress-triggering zone, increasing the potential seismic hazard, in contrast to the delayed seismicities on 100 km region of the southern Kalping fault (KPF).