Asymptotic behaviour of the confidence region in orbit determination for hyperbolic maps with a parameter

When dealing with an orbit determination problem, uncertainties naturally arise from intrinsic errors related to observation devices and approximation models. Following the Least Squares Method and applying approximation schemes such as the differential correction, uncertainties can be geometrically summarized in confidence regions and estimated by confidence ellipsoids. We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the confidence ellipsoids while the number of observations and the time span over which they are performed simultaneously increase. Numerical evidences suggest that, in the chaotic scenario, the uncertainties decay at different rates whether the orbit determination is set up to recover the initial conditions alone or along with a dynamical or kinematical parameter, while in the regular case there is no distinction. We show how to improve some of the results in Marò and Bonanno (2021), providing conditions that imply a non-faster-than-polynomial rate of decay in the chaotic case with the parameter, in accordance with the numerical experiments. We also apply these findings to well known examples of chaotic maps, such as piecewise expanding maps of the unit interval or affine hyperbolic toral transformations. We also discuss the applicability to intermittent maps. • Orbit determination with a parameter has at most polynomial decay. • Affine hyperbolic maps with parameter give polynomial decay in orbit determination. • Upper bound for orbit determination modelled on an intermittent map.