Assessment of shift in GWPZs in Kashmir Valley of Northwestern Himalayas

Groundwater is a critical resource for the Kashmir Valley, which is increasingly pressured by urbanization and climate change. This study aims to delineate Groundwater Potential Zones (GWPZs) in the Kashmir Valley using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The research integrates eight thematic layers, including geology, geomorphology, slope, drainage density, land use/land cover (LULC), lineament density, rainfall, and topographic wetness index (TWI), to assess GWPZs for 1995, 2010, and 2020. Weights for each layer were assigned based on their influence on groundwater dynamics. The generated GWPZs were classified into five classes: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. Over 25 years, significant changes in GWPZs were observed: very low potential zones decreased by 45.17%, low potential zones by 26.17%, and very high potential zones by 72.95%. Conversely, moderate potential zones increased by 50.87%, and high potential zones saw a slight increase of 9.00%. Results indicated that high and very high GWPZs are predominantly located in the valley's alluvial plains, primarily covered by agricultural and partially horticultural land. Validation of the generated GWPZs using bore well locations, discharge data, and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves demonstrated high accuracy, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 0.915, 0.898, and 0.890 for the respective years. These findings underscore the adverse impact of urbanization on groundwater potential zonation and emphasize the need for sustainable water management practices. This study provides valuable insights into the long-term shifts in groundwater potential in response to urban expansion and climate change. It highlights the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptive management to safeguard groundwater resources. • Effective delineation of groundwater potential zones (GWPZs) in the Kashmir Valley using GIS and AHP. • Validation of GWPZs through ROC analysis and well-discharge data substantiates research reliability. • High and very high groundwater potential zones are mainly in alluvial plains, covered by agricultural and horticultural land. • Urbanization-induced shrinkage of agricultural land negatively impacts groundwater potential. • Findings offer valuable insights facilitating efficient utilization and conserving groundwater resources.