Modeling of Carbon Footprint Emissions in Sugarcane Production Using System Dynamics

Objective: This study proposes a model aimed at estimating and reducing carbon emissions in sugarcane cultivation and juice extraction, designed for potential application in real-world systems. Method: The model grounded in a hypothetical case study of a 60-hectare sugarcane plantation in a warm climate with a 7-month growth cycle and a three-year simulation period, focuses on estimate and evaluate mitigation scenarios to decrease emissions from fuel and electricity usage in activities such as plowing, sowing, harvesting, and irrigation. Utilizing Vensim PLE, a System Dynamics model that combine event and dynamic simulation. Results and Discussion: Utilizing Vensim PLE, a System Dynamics model that combine event and dynamic simulation estimated a 3060.81 tons CO2 equivalent carbon footprint. Two scenarios aimed at footprint reduction were tested: substituting electrical energy with solar power reduced the footprint by 86% to 450.092 tons, demonstrating clean energy's efficacy. Conversely, replacing an industrial mill with the traditional trapiche technique for juice extraction yielded a mere 1% reduction, indicating its ineffectiveness for real-world application. Research Implications: This study emphasizes the development of a simulation model based on system dynamics to estimate the carbon footprint emissions in sugar cane production considering its cultivation and juice extraction. The results support that through simulations, it is possible to determine the factors that influence the generation of carbon dioxide, offering a broader vision to establish and implement mitigation measures such as adopting clean energies and reducing fuel consumption. Originality/Value: This research contributes to the understanding of the application of system dynamics by using software such as Vensim PLE to estimate the carbon footprint emissions in sugar cane production, considering its cultivation and juice extraction. The results found through simulations suggest the implementation of mitigation measures such as the adoption of clean energies and the reduction of fuel consumption.