A Global Estimation of Potential Climate Change Effects on Pollinator-Dependent Crops

Abstract Climate change poses a threat to global food security by significantly affecting agricultural products, both directly and indirectly. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the climate suitability of 61 pollinator-dependent crops worldwide under different climate change scenarios. Utilizing species distribution models (SDMs), we predicted climate suitability maps for these crops in the present and projected conditions for 2070. Our findings indicate that under the most pessimistic climate change scenario in 2070 (SSP585), 16, 31, 34, 29, 29, and 31 crops in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America, and South America, respectively, may experience a decrease in their suitable habitats. On average, crops in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America, and South America are expected to see a decrease of − 14.5%, − 11.2%, − 26.2%, − 4.7%, 5.5%, and − 14.4% in their suitability by 2070. Regional variations in the effects of climate change on crops highlight the vulnerability of certain areas, particularly Australia, where a substantial number of crops face a decline in suitable habitats. Conversely, North America may witness an increase in the distribution of specific products. Urgent action is needed to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, including the development of more resilient crop varieties and improvements in agricultural practices, especially for highly vulnerable pollinator-dependent crops in Asia and Africa.