Modelling marine heatwaves impact on shallow and upper mesophotic tropical coral reefs

Abstract Coral reefs ecosystems, often compared to rain forests for their high biodiversity, are threatened by ocean warming causing coral bleaching when the symbiotic relationship between dinoflagellates and corals breaks under high ocean temperatures. Thermal stress from marine heatwaves (MHWs) occur both at the surface and subsurface with subsurface MHWs lasting longer with potentially higher cumulative intensities. However, global coral bleaching models generally ignore the differences in thermal stress between surface and sea-bed levels. Here, we define MHWs at sea-bed level to model coral bleaching with daily resolution from 6 May 1993 to 31 October 2023, for 9944 tropical coral reefs between 0 and 60 m depths. We show that deeper reefs experience on average higher thermal stress and bleaching compared to surface reefs. Using surface temperature data to model bleaching for deeper corals underestimates bleaching intensities by an average of 6% ± 9% compared to the subsurface calibrated model. Our study is a starting point for more accurate coral bleaching modelling, providing additional evidence to reshape our perception of deeper coral reefs as potential refugees from climate change.