Seasonal variations and temporal instability of motorcyclist injury severity in Cambodia: Analyses based on a random parameter logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances

Motorcycles are a prevalent mode of transportation in countries like Cambodia that experience distinct rainy and dry seasons. However, the safety concerns associated with motorcycling in this region have not been thoroughly investigated. This study addresses this research gap by examining the severity of motorcyclist injuries in Cambodia, considering the potential variations across seasons and the fluctuations in contributing factors over time. Utilizing a random parameter logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances, the research analyzes motorcycle crash data from 2015 to 2017 to identify heterogeneities in the determinants of injury severity. The study confirms seasonal variations and temporal instabilities in influential factors, highlighting the need for distinct modeling for dry and rainy seasons due to varying contributing factors. Key findings include the consistent increase in fatal injury risk associated with head-on collisions and elderly rider involvement across both seasons. During the rainy season, motorcycle-to-motorcycle crashes significantly heighten the likelihood of severe injuries, with weekend crashes more likely to result in fatalities. Furthermore, more than half of speeding incidents during the rainy season consistently led to fatal injuries across all three years. In contrast, during the dry season, riders faced a greater risk of severe injuries compared to pillion riders, with crashes on national roads more likely to lead to fatal outcomes. Temporal stability tests further reveal that the influence of external variables on motorcyclist injury severity varies across years, stressing the need for tailored, season-specific approaches to effectively mitigate and prevent crashes.