Research on the Impact and Spillover Effects of Urbanization Process on Grain Production

Food security is an important strategic issue for the country. With the advancement of urbanization, food security needs to be re examined. Based on panel data from 31 provinces (regions, cities) in China from 2011 to 2022, this study analyzed the cluster effect of grain production using Moran index, and explored the impact of urbanization process on grain production and its spatial spillover effects through spatial Durbin model. Finally, the convergence of grain production was studied based on alpha and beta convergence models. The research results show that: (1) there is a significant cluster effect in grain production in various provinces, manifested as high-value clustering and low value clustering; (2) The urbanization rate promotes grain production in the province while suppressing grain production in neighboring provinces, while economic activity suppresses grain production in the province but promotes grain production in neighboring provinces. Overall, the urbanization rate significantly promotes grain production, while economic activities have a significant inhibitory effect on grain production; (3) There is no "catch-up effect" in grain production among provinces and grain functional zones, and the gap is showing a widening trend. This study aims to provide a reference basis for formulating food security policies.