Dynamics of ecosystem services along ecological network seascapes

Abstract Human societies depend on services provided by ecosystems, from local needs such as clean water and pest control to global services like the ozone layer and the ocean biological pump. Ecosystem services are linked to the states of the ecosystem, which are, in turn, governed by a web of ecological interactions. These interactions, along with the services they support, are under threat from environmental changes driven by human activities. Therefore, safeguarding these vital services requires an understanding of how the structure and dynamics of ecological interactions are affected by environmental change. A critical step towards this goal is the development of a theoretical framework that can elucidate how ecosystem services are sustained or impaired by interactions within ecosystems in fluctuating environments. Recent years have seen progress in characterizing the organization and dynamics of ecological networks. However, linking temporally varying network structure in fluctuating environments, the seascapes of ecological networks, and their impact on services remains a challenge. We propose an approach based on merging ecological network analysis with Boolean functions and modeling of fluctuating environments to address how services are affected by environmental change. We review aspects of Boolean Network models and illustrate the approach using biologically inspired Boolean rules that involve predator-prey cycles, trophic cascades, and mutualisms formed by plants and their frugivores. This approach aims to contribute to the study of how the organization of ecological interactions affects the persistence of ecosystem services. Specifically, we discuss how this approach can provide new insights into how environmental change affects the relationship between ecological networks and ecosystem services. The combination of information on the natural history of species interactions and ecosystem services, Boolean networks, and models for fluctuating environments may contribute to conservation strategies for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem services in the face of ongoing environmental change.