Prediction of number of generations of serpentine leaf miner, <i>Liriomyza trifolii</i> (Burgess) (Agromyzidae: Diptera) in India assessed by CLIMEX under climate change scenario

The serpentine leaf miner, Liriomyza trifolii, is an invasive pest that affects plants, causing damage to the leaves and reducing crop yield. Number of generations of serpentine leaf miner was assessed under current and expected future climate change scenarios. The assessment was done for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) future climate change scenario in India. L. trifolii would have had 16-19 generations, in base line and 17-24 in 2050-time frame under future climate change in Andhra Pradesh conditions. Under Arunachal Pradesh conditions, it would have had 6-14 generations in base line and is expected to complete the same number of generations in 2050, scenario. Under Sikkim conditions 3 - 4 and 5 number of generations were assessed for present and future climate change scenario. Suitability of the localities was expressed in terms of Ecoclimatic index (EI) ranging from 0 to > 20 by combining the interaction effect of various stress indices and growth indices for the development of L. trifolii. It was observed that in temperate areas the pest incidence may increase in future, in contrast to the decreasing trend in areas where already the prevailing temperatures are near upper thresholds. It is therefore expected that number of generations of L. trifolii would increase with the rising temperatures under climate change situations.