Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the GeeSEBAL Model Using High-Resolution Remote-Sensing Data and Global Flux Site Data

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the surface water cycle. The geeSEBAL model is increasingly being used to estimate ETa using high-resolution remote-sensing data (Landsat 4/5/7/8). However, due to surface heterogeneity, there is significant uncertainty. By optimizing the quantile values of the reverse-modelling automatic calibration algorithm (CIMEC) endpoint-component selection algorithm under extreme conditions through 212 global flux sites, we obtained the optimized quantile values of 11 vegetation types of cold- and hot-pixel endpoint components (Ts and NDVI). Based on the observation data of the global FLUXNET tower, the sensitivity of 20 parameters in the improved geeSEBAL model was determined through Sobol’s sensitivity analysis. Among them, the parameters dT and SAVI,hot were confirmed as the most sensitive parameters of the algorithm. Subsequently, we used the differential evolution Markov chain (DE-MC) method to analyse the uncertainty of the parameters in the geeSEBAL model used the posterior distribution of the parameters to modify the sensitive parameter values or ranges in the improved geeSEBAL model and to simulate the daily ETa. The results indicate that by analysing the end element components of the geeSEBAL model (Ts and NDVI), quantile numerical optimization and parameter optimization can be performed. Compared with the original algorithm, the improved geeSEBAL model has significantly improved simulation performance, as shown by higher R2 values, higher NSE values, smaller bias values, and lower RMSE values. The most suitable values of the predefined parameter Zoh were determined, and the reanalysis of meteorological data inputs (relative humidity (RH), temperature (T), wind speed (WS), and net radiation (Rn)) was also found to be an important source of uncertainty for the accurate estimation of ETa. This study indicates that optimizing the quantiles and key parameters of the model end component has certain potential for further improving the accuracy of the geeSEBAL model based on high-resolution remote-sensing data in estimating the ETa for various vegetation types.