Carbon Stock Estimation of Poplar Plantations Based on Additive Biomass Models

Accurate estimation of biomass and carbon stocks in forest ecosystems is critical for understanding their roles in carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation. Currently, the development of stand biomass models and carbon stock estimation at the regional scale has emerged as a prominent research priority. In this study, 225 Populus spp. (poplar) trees in Shandong Province, China, were destructively sampled to obtain the biomass of their components. Two models (MS1 and MS2) were developed using allometric equations and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method to ensure additive properties across tree components. The model evaluation employed the leave-one-out jackknife (LOO) method, considering statistics such as adjusted R-squared (Ra2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The results from our models demonstrated high accuracy, with MS2 slightly outperforming MS1 after incorporating tree height as an independent variable. The models reliably estimated component-specific biomass and carbon stocks, with distinct variations observed in the carbon content among foliage (47.14 ± 2.07%), branches (47.26 ± 2.48%), stems (47.67 ± 2.21%), and roots (46.37 ± 2.78%). Carbon stocks in poplar plantations increased with the diameter class, ranging from 5 to 35 cm and correspondingly from 3.670 to 172.491 Mg C ha−1. As the diameter class increases, the carbon allocation strategy of poplars aligns with the CSR strategy, transitioning from prioritizing growth competition to emphasizing self-stabilization. Our research proposes a robust framework for assessing biomass and carbon stocks in poplar plantations, which is essential for evidence-based forest management strategies.