AdaTrans: Adaptive Transfer Time Prediction for Multi-modal Transportation Modes

Multi-modal transportation leverages the advantages of various transportation modes, leading to more efficient urban traveling services. Accurately predicting transfer times between different modes provides guidance for tasks such as trip planning and transportation management. Most existing transfer time prediction works rely on strong assumptions, e.g., predetermined routes, assumed speeds, and predefined downstream transportation timetables. However, these assumptions are hard to hold in practice due to internal factors like individual preferences and external factors like dynamic traffic conditions. These factors are dynamic and vary with location and time, presenting a significant challenge. To address this, we introduce an adaptive transfer time prediction framework, AdaTrans, to forecast personalized transfer times between upstream and downstream transportation modes. Firstly, an attribute learning module is designed to model the trends of internal factors. Then a spatial-temporal adaptive learning component is designed to learn dynamic external factors. Finally, an aggregation component with a capsule network is employed to fuse the influences of these factors. The extensive evaluation results in two real-world datasets demonstrate that AdaTrans effectively harnesses insights from internal and external factors, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by ~20%.