Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in the Lake Chad Basin under current climate change
Central Sahel is affected by a reinforcement of rainfall since the beginning of 1990s. This increase in rainfall is affected by high inter-annual variability and is characterized by extreme rain events causing floods of unprecedented magnitude. However, few studies have been carried out on these extreme events. Moreover, with current climate change expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle, we don't know if these events could become more frequent. Here, we report the hydrological changes that currently occur in the Lake Chad basin. Based on ground observations and satellite data, we focused on the 2022 flood event, demonstrating that it was the most important event from the last 60 years, comparable to what occurred during the last wet period between the 1950s and the 1960s. We showed that under this precipitation regime and if warming is not regulated at a global scale, the return period of the 2022 major riverine flood is expected to be between 2 and 5 years. By using modelling experiments, our study also suggested that in the next decade, future flow rates of the main rivers draining the Lake Chad basin could reach the values observed in the 1950s. These results strongly suggest anticipating water management in a context of poor infrastructural development.
Authors
- Adrien Paris (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2304-5132)
- Binh Pham‐Duc (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6533-6830)
- Laëtitia Gal (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5054-4992)
- Christophe Lescoulier
- Romain Recouvreur
- Matías Alcoba (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4874-9008)
- Florence Sylvestre (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7870-0918)
- Jean-François Cretaux
- Mahmoud Mahamat Ahmat
- Djergo Gaya
- Abdallah Mahamat-Nour
- Toussaint Naradoum
Institutions
- University of N'Djamena (TD)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Université Fédérale de Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées (FR)
- Aix-Marseille Université (FR)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
- Centre de Recherche et d’Enseignement de Géosciences de l’Environnement (FR)
- Laboratoire d’Études en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (FR)
- Direction de la Météorologie Nationale (MA)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
- Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology (VN)
- Egis (France) (FR)
- Hanoi University of Science and Technology (VN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2024-10-20
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-75707-4
- Citations
- 5
- Primary Topic
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.01
Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- World Bank Group
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
- Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires Étrangères