The Research on The Total Ownership Costs for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Commercial Vehicles Based on System Dynamics

The total cost of ownership (TCO) for hydrogen-fuel-cell commercial vehicles mainly includes the initial vehicle acquisition cost and ongoing energy expenses, which are estimated to be 4 to 6 times higher than those for conventional fuel-powered or electric vehicles. As the volume of hydrogen-fuel-cell commercial vehicles increase in the next years, the cost will also decrease. To accurately study the TCO for hydrogen-fuel-cell commercials vehicles from 2024 to 2035, this paper uses the system dynamics simulation to build a model. The model incorporates the costs associated with critical components such as the hydrogen-fuel-cell system and hydrogen storage tanks, and relates these to the hydrogen-fuel-cell commercial vehicles ownership. Through this simulation, the TCO, annual sales volume, and the ownership of hydrogen-fuel-cell commercial vehicles from 2024 to 2035 are studied. The main influencing factors of the system include the cost of hydrogen-fuel-cell system, hydrogen storage tanks, hydrogen, electricity, and diesel, etc. The simulation results show that by 2035: 1. Compared to the TCO of pure electric trucks at 378,400 RMB, the TCO for hydrogen-fuel-cell trucks will decrease from 1,287,700 RMB in 2024 to 517,900 RMB by 2035, and hydrogen-fuel-cell trucks will have no advantage in the next 10 years; 2. Compared to the TCO of traditional fuel heavy trucks at 2,638,500 RMB, the TCO for hydrogen-fuel-cell heavy trucks will start to decrease from 2027 to 2,314,500 RMB, and will drop to 1,109,800 RMB by 2035, meaning that from 2027, the TCO for hydrogen-fuel-cell heavy trucks will be lower than that of traditional fuel heavy trucks; 3. The total number of hydrogen-fuel-cell commercial vehicles will reach 721,900 by 2035. The research has guiding significance for the development of hydrogen-fuel-cell commercial vehicles.