Nomograms for predicting short-term mortality in acute-on-chronic liver disease caused by the combination of hepatitis B virus and alcohol

This study aimed to identify predictive factors for the prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) due to both hepatitis B virus (HBV) and alcohol and to develop prognostic models to improve treatment management. AoCLD patients with HBV and alcohol as etiological factors were selected from two multicenter prospective cohorts (NCT02457637,NCT03641872) and included in separate training and validation cohorts (n = 180 and n = 148). In the training cohort, the CATCH-LIFE A nomogram (based on age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, serum sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy score) and CATCH-LIFE B nomogram (based on age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, serum albumin, white blood cell, platelet count, and hepatic encephalopathy score) had discriminatory ability for predicting 28-day (c-indexes of 0.910 and 0.899) and 90-day mortality (c-indexes of 0.878 and 0.887, respectively). The area under the curve values for 28-day and 90-day mortality prediction by the CATCH-LIFE A nomogram were 0.922 (95% CI : 0.874, 0.971) and 0.905 (0.856, 0.956), respectively, while those for the CATCH-LIFE B nomogram were 0.916(0.861,0.972) and 0.915 (0.866,0.964), respectively. Similar performance results were observed in the validation cohort. Optimal cut-off scores for each nomogram could be used for patient stratification in high- and low-risk groups, and the high-risk groups showed shorter survival times than the low-risk groups in both the training and validation cohorts. Two nomograms constructed from the first short-term follow-up data from patients with AoCLD due to combined HBV infection and alcohol exposure showed good predictive performance for 28-day and 90-day mortality and might be used to guide clinical management.

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Publication Details

Journal
Scientific Reports
Published
2024-10-19
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76473-z
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.39

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article

Nomograms for predicting short-term mortality in acute-on-chronic liver disease caused by the combination of hepatitis B virus and alcohol

Xiuhua Jiang, Yubao Zheng, Huadong Yan, Guohong Deng et al.
1 citations
Scientific Reports
Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment
0.39
article

Nomograms for predicting short-term mortality in acute-on-chronic liver disease caused by the combination of hepatitis B virus and alcohol

Xiuhua Jiang, Yubao Zheng, Huadong Yan, Guohong Deng, Xinyi Zhou, Qun Zhang, Zhongji Meng, Shuning Sun, Weituo Zhang, Ruochan Chen, Yanhang Gao, Wenting Tan, Yu Shi, Yixin Hou, Yi Zhou, Guotao Zhong, Xin Zheng, Beiling Li, Sen Luo, Jing Liu, Haiyu Wang, Feng Liu, Hai Li, Yuanyuan Chen, Tao Li, Yan Zhang, Hongqin Xu, Yan Xiong, Wen Gu, Xiaobo Lu, Xiaoyu Wen, Jing Li, Xianbo Wang, Jinjun Chen, Min Zhang, Feng Yue, Zhiping Qian, Yan Huang, Liang Qiao, Rongjiong Zheng, Haotang Ren, Tao Liu
article en
1 citations

Abstract

This study aimed to identify predictive factors for the prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) due to both hepatitis B virus (HBV) and alcohol and to develop prognostic models to improve treatment management. AoCLD patients with HBV and alcohol as etiological factors were selected from two multicenter prospective cohorts (NCT02457637,NCT03641872) and included in separate training and validation cohorts (n = 180 and n = 148). In the training cohort, the CATCH-LIFE A nomogram (based on age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, serum sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy score) and CATCH-LIFE B nomogram (based on age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, serum albumin, white blood cell, platelet count, and hepatic encephalopathy score) had discriminatory ability for predicting 28-day (c-indexes of 0.910 and 0.899) and 90-day mortality (c-indexes of 0.878 and 0.887, respectively). The area under the curve values for 28-day and 90-day mortality prediction by the CATCH-LIFE A nomogram were 0.922 (95% CI : 0.874, 0.971) and 0.905 (0.856, 0.956), respectively, while those for the CATCH-LIFE B nomogram were 0.916(0.861,0.972) and 0.915 (0.866,0.964), respectively. Similar performance results were observed in the validation cohort. Optimal cut-off scores for each nomogram could be used for patient stratification in high- and low-risk groups, and the high-risk groups showed shorter survival times than the low-risk groups in both the training and validation cohorts. Two nomograms constructed from the first short-term follow-up data from patients with AoCLD due to combined HBV infection and alcohol exposure showed good predictive performance for 28-day and 90-day mortality and might be used to guide clinical management.

Scientific ReportsVol. 14(1)
Hubei University of Medicine (CN), Union Hospital (HK), Central South University (CN), Army Medical University (CN), Xinjiang Medical University (CN), Sun Yat-sen University (CN), Shanghai Jiao Tong University (CN), Capital Medical University (CN), Jilin University (CN), First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University (CN), National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases (CN), Nanfang Hospital (CN), Second Hospital of Shandong University (CN), Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center (CN), Taihe Hospital (CN), First Hospital of Jilin University (CN), Zhejiang Shuren University (CN), Southwest Hospital (CN), Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (CN), Beijing Ditan Hospital (CN), Xiangya Hospital Central South University (CN), State Key Laboratory of Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Huazhong University of Science and Technology (CN), Southern Medical University (CN), Zhejiang University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Chongqing Science and Technology Commission, People's Government of Jilin Province, Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing, National Science and Technology Major Project
Good health and well-being
Openalex Percentile: Top 33%
Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment
0.39
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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