Optimizing green hydrogen strategies in Tunisia: A combined SWOT-MCDM approach

Tunisia's rapid industrial expansion and population growth have created a pressing energy deficit, despite the country's significant, yet largely untapped, renewable energy potential. This study addressed this challenge by developing a comprehensive framework to identify and evaluate strategies for promoting green hydrogen production from renewable energy sources in Tunisia. A Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat (SWOT) analysis, incorporating social, economic, and environmental dimensions, was conducted to formulate potential solutions. The Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) method facilitated the weighting of SWOT factors and sub-factors. Subsequently, a multi-criteria decision-making approach, employing the gray technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS-G) method (validated by gray additive ratio assessment (ARAS-G), gray complex proportional assessment (COPRAS-G), and gray multi-objective optimization by ratio analysis (MOORA-G), was used to rank the identified strategies. The SWOT analysis revealed "Strengths" as the most influential factor with a relative weight of 47.3 %, followed by "Weaknesses" (26.5 %), "Threats" (15.6 %), and "Opportunities" (10.6 %). Specifically, experts emphasized Tunisia's renewable energy potential (21.89 %) and robust power system (12.11 %) as primary strengths. Conversely, high investment costs (11.2 %) and political instability (7.77 %) posed substantial threat. Positive socio-economic impacts represented a key opportunity with a score of 5.2 %. As for the strategies prioritizing criteria, production cost ranked first with a score of 13.5 %, followed by environmental impact (12.8 %), renewable energy potential (12.0 %), and mitigation costs (11.3 %). The gray TOPSIS analysis identified two key strategies: leveraging Tunisia's wind and solar resources and fostering regional cooperation for project implementation. The robustness of these strategies is confirmed by the strong correlation between TOPSIS-G, ARAS-G, COPRAS-G, and MOORA-G results. Overall, the study provides a comprehensive roadmap and expert-informed decision-support tools, offering valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and stakeholders in Tunisia and other emerging economies facing similar energy challenges.