Drivers of Cold Frontal Hourly Extreme Precipitation: A Climatological Study Over Europe

Abstract In the mid‐latitudes extreme precipitation events are strongly associated with cold fronts. By exploring drivers across different scales and relating them to precipitation, we aim to improve our understanding of processes influencing cold frontal extremes. Using hourly ERA5 data over Europe and the North Atlantic, cold fronts are detected and the associated conditions are identified. Quantile regression models are employed to find drivers of frontal precipitation and to quantify these relations. Additionally, we use composites to study the synoptic conditions and meso‐scale structure of extreme events. We find that humidity close to the detected fronts, convergence and the low level jet speed contribute most to the formation of extreme precipitation. Synoptic conditions favoring the formation of extreme events are also identified. These results improve our understanding of cold frontal processes leading to precipitation. Additionally, they provide the foundation for a process‐based evaluation of frontal dynamics in climate models.