PROBABILITY OF COLLISION WITH BUILDINGS DUE TO AIRPLANE AND HELICOPTER ACCIDENTS

This study presents a method for calculating the probabilities of collision with buildings due to airplane or helicopter crashes. Probabilistic models are presented based on ISO 10252. The probabilities of collision are generally expressed as the product of accident probabilities and strike probabilities. Accident probabilities are sourced from domestic public databases on aircraft accidents, limiting to accidents affecting buildings. The calculated results are compared to the reference values of ISO 10252. This paper also provides an example of the calculation of strike probabilities to evaluate aircraft impact risk.