Fragile Geographies and the Climate-Conflict Nexus: Investigating Climate-Induced Security Risks, Migration, and Inequality in Balochistan, Pakistan

Although climate change has been recognized as a “threat multiplier,” its specific effects on conflict-affected areas remain underexplored. This study investigates the nexus between climate change and violent conflict within the “fragile geography” of Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province. Balochistan’s increasingly fragmented security landscape and recurring natural disasters, notably the 2022 floods, provide a pertinent background for examining the interplay between climate change and violent conflict. A qualitative approach was employed, whereby interviews and group discussions were conducted in two Balochistan districts. The analysis revealed that weak institutional capacity, deep-rooted socioeconomic and political inequalities, and notably, “migration patterns” are critical variables influencing the dynamic interplay between climate change and violent conflict in the region. By analyzing the vulnerabilities inherent in Balochistan’s diverse physiography, this study illuminates how climate change exacerbates violent conflict in a region already beset by instability, highlighting the urgent need for a more nuanced understanding to address these complex challenges.