The Extent of Agricultural Land Cover Change: The Case of Bautista, Pangasinan

Urban Expansion in Bautista periodically alters its land cover, significantly diminishing agricultural land in favor of built-up areas. Therefore, a comprehensive investigation of past and future land cover changes is essential for sustainable development. The main objective of this research is to determine the extent of agricultural land cover change and its spatial pattern from 2018 to 2022 and in the year 2027 in Bautista, Pangasinan. This study employed a descriptive research approach integrating time series data, spatial analysis, and simulation tools to evaluate the dynamic changes in agricultural land cover. The extent of agricultural land cover change decreased from 3,480.95 hectares in 2018 to 3,417.04 hectares in 2022, primarily near road networks and within the identified urban barangays of the municipality. The change exhibited a clustered distribution, as per the summary report from the Average Nearest Neighbor using the Geographic Information System. In contrast, built-up land cover change expanded by 60.68 hectares from 2018 to 2022, following an increasing trend. Furthermore, the projected agricultural land cover change is expected to decrease continuously from 3,417.039 hectares in 2022 to 3,406.875 hectares in 2027. The results indicate a conversion of agricultural land to built-up areas between 2018 and 2022 and a further decrease in 2027, reflecting a shift from agriculture to man-made structures. This research underscores the importance of monitoring land conversions and provides a basis for sustainable solutions to address the growing demand for urbanization without compromising the future extent of agricultural land cover in Bautista, Pangasinan.