Temporal Patterns of Fish Occurrence in the Colorado River, Grand Canyon in Response to Temperature, Largescale Drought, and Newly Exposed Habitat

ABSTRACT Two large dams on the Colorado River, Glen Canyon and Hoover Dam, have profoundly altered the river within Grand Canyon. Owing to widespread drought and increased water usage throughout the Southwest, water levels in Lake Mead declined by over 40 m since 2000, exposing over 80 km of newly emerged riverine habitat in the western Grand Canyon that experiences higher water temperatures and increased turbidity relative to upstream portions of the Colorado River within the Grand Canyon. Our objective was to investigate how the probability of fish occurrence has changed within the Colorado River in Grand Canyon as abiotic conditions have shifted in relation to these altered environmental conditions. We used 22 years of long‐term fish monitoring data, from 2000 to 2022, on the mainstem of the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon to map the probability of occurrence based upon modeled water temperature for native and common nonnative salmonid species through space (river kilometer) and time in relation to declining water levels in Lake Mead. Our results suggest that native fish occurrence is strongly correlated with longitudinally increasing water temperature, while nonnative trout species were negatively correlated with increased water temperature downstream from the dam. Further, we found that nonnative trout species have experienced decreases in their probability of occurrence through time, while natives have experienced an increase in probability of occurrence. Information on distribution of fish prior to reservoir declines, and how the fish assemblage has shifted coincident with environmental changes, can help inform future management of native and nonnative fish in highly regulated river systems.