SOME ASPECTS OF IMPROVING FLOOD VOLUME FORECASTING UNDER CONDITIONS OF LIMITED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA

The article deals with methods of improving the forecasting of the volume of spring flood runoff. The main objects of the study are the Oba, Ulbi and Dresvyanka rivers, which are lateral tributaries of the Shulba reservoir. These rivers belong to the type of rivers with spring-summer flooding and extended flow for more than 2...3 months. The aim of the study is to develop a methodology for flow forecasting based on the relationship between snow accumulation and river flow in spring and summer periods. The results of the study of hydrological and meteorological factors affecting runoff formation are presented, and equations for forecasting runoff during spring and summer floods and its duration are derived. The obtained multiple regression equations demonstrated high accuracy in modelling flood volumes, with correlation coefficients between observed and predicted data ranging from 0,79 to 0,91. According to S/σ calculations, the results obtained indicate good reproducibility of the observed flood volumes, with values ranging from 0,46 to 0,53.