Global variations in elderly cancer mortality pattern in 2020 & prediction to 2040: A population-based study

Background & objectives Cancer contributes to decreasing life expectancy, especially in low- and middle- income countries (LMIC) and countries in transition where resources for diagnosis and care are limited. As the world population is ageing, and by 2050, two-thirds of the population in LMIC will be elderly, the greater impact of cancer on the expectation of life in years at a given age of an adult will be seen in these countries. Methods Estimated cancer mortality for older adults (60 yr or above) was estimated using statistics available on Globocan 2020 platform (gco.iarc.fr). This platform provided the number of deaths and age-standardized truncated mortality rates (per 100,000) by sex and continent. We calculated the projected cancer deaths in 2040 by applying the projection model, considering a stable rate. Results Globally, with an estimated 7.5 million deaths, cancer deaths in older population represented a total of 71.2 per cent of all cancer-related deaths. The truncated age-adjusted mortality rate among the older population (both sexes) was estimated as 615.1 deaths per 100,000 and the mortality rate was 62.6 per cent higher in elderly (60 yr or above) males as compared to elderly females. The overall future cancer death among the elderly was estimated to increase from 7.05 to 12.7 million deaths, representing a total 80.2 per cent increase in deaths by 2040. Interpretation & conclusions The projected mortality increase will challenge existing healthcare systems, especially in lower or lower medium-income countries where resources are limited. Elderly patients are at an elevated risk of adverse outcomes due to the high prevalence of co-morbid conditions. Geriatric oncology will play an important role in the coming years to ensure the overall health and well-being of elderly patients, which needs to be supported by good stratified data on elderly cancer.