Evaluating the Vulnerability of Forestry Supply Chains Through Fuzzy Cognitive Map

It is crucial to address the significant role of the supply chain in economic activity and its vulnerable areas. This research focuses on the forestry industry, where obtaining and maintaining the primary raw material source is notably more challenging than other supply chains. The primary objective of this study is to analyze vulnerability factors specific to the forestry supply chain (FSC) by modeling their interactions and potential influences on each other. Initially, relevant factors were defined through a comprehensive literature review, encompassing vulnerabilities both in the general supply chain and pertinent to the forestry industry, such as natural disruptions. Then, the relationships between these factors were modeled and simulated using an input-sensitive fuzzy cognitive map (FCM). A cognitive map was constructed based on expert opinions, facilitated by triangular fuzzy numbers to express expert judgments accurately. FCM simulations using a new reasoning mechanism were conducted to analyze the effects of FSC vulnerability factors on one another across three sustainability-themed scenarios: economically related vulnerabilities, socially related vulnerabilities, and environmentally related vulnerabilities. Supply chain structure, government support, and source availability were the main vulnerability factors influencing the overall resilience of the FSC. Environmental stressors such as natural disturbances and climate change, and economic shocks, were found to significantly impact FSC dynamics, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies and robust contingency planning. This research is significant for stakeholders in the forestry industry as it elucidates the vulnerability factors within the FSC and demonstrates how different vulnerabilities can influence one another.