Mapping the marginals: predicting unplanned human settlements in urban protected areas of Bogotá, Colombia

Abstract Protected areas are essential for safeguarding ecosystems and their associated environmental services. In urban environments, they serve as crucial conservation zones, protecting against human encroachment. However, even with robust territorial planning, protected areas remain vulnerable to informal settlements. This study employs a landscape ecology approach to identify hotspots within Parque Entrenubes, an urban protected area in Bogotá, D.C., Colombia, that are susceptible to future informal settlements. We utilized a logistic regression model to predict potential invasions by assessing the likelihood of settlements occurring in cells with different characteristics compared to unoccupied areas. Variables considered included distance to creeks, secondary roads, main roads, legalized neighborhoods, elevation, and slope. The results indicate a clustered pattern of settlements influenced by various spatial factors, suggesting that informal settlements are not randomly distributed. Steeper slopes, higher elevations, and greater distances from main roads have higher probabilities of occupation, while areas closer to water, roads, and existing neighborhoods are more likely to suffer illegal settlements. Our study represents the first spatially explicit prediction approach for unplanned settlements in Bogotá. This spatial analysis can inform strategic actions to prevent, contain, and control new informal settlements. Furthermore, the findings can be integrated into urban planning initiatives to mitigate the negative impacts of such settlements on protected areas and the environment.