Using punctuated equilibrium theory to explain changes in policy outputs: The case of the United States Coast Guard

Abstract This article explores the utility of punctuated equilibrium (PE) theory in explaining revolutionary organizational change in the public sector and its effects on policy implementation, with a focus on the United States Coast Guard. We illustrate our model using data from in‐depth interviews with current and former senior Coast Guard officers and enlisted personnel, as well as secondary sources such as historical accounts and budget data. Through content analysis, we argue that PE theory begins with a change in the public sector organization's external environment, which then affects organizational strategy, structure, power distribution, and outputs. Punctuated equilibrium theory proves to be a valuable lens for understanding policy outputs in relation to organizational change. Related Articles Kwon, Sung‐Wook, and Sylvia Gonzalez‐Gorman. 2019. “Influence of Local Political Institutions on Policy Punctuation in Three Policy Areas.” Politics & Policy 47(2): 300–25. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12295 . Neill, Katharine A., and John C. Morris. 2012. “A Tangled Web of Principals and Agents: Examining the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill through a Principal–Agent Lens.” Politics & Policy 40(4): 629–56. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00371.x . Peng, Peiwen, and Tangzhe Cao. 2023. “Attention, Institutional Friction, and Punctuated Equilibrium in China's Budget: Changes in Social Security and Employment Expenditure.” Politics & Policy 51(2): 256–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12523 .