Dynamic Changes and Driving Factors in the Surface Area of Ebinur Lake over the Past Three Decades

Dryland lakes are indispensable to regional water resource systems. Ebinur Lake, the largest saline lake in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, is vital for regional biodiversity and environmental stability but has been facing the predicament of gradual shrinkage in recent decades. In this study, we proposed a new dual-index method for Landsat (-5, -7, -8, and -9) data to extract water with the combinations of the normalized difference water index (NDWI) and the modified NDWI for turbid waters (NDWIturbid). The dual-index method showed a high overall accuracy of 96.36% for Ebinur Lake. Landsat series images from 1992 to 2023 were employed to acquire the water areas of Ebinur Lake. The results showed that, over the past three decades, the area of Ebinur Lake exhibited a fluctuating decreasing trend, with an average lake area of 568.74 ± 152.43 km². The northwest intermittent water areas showed significant changes, and there was a close connection between the northwest and core water areas. Seasonally, the lake area decreased from spring to autumn. River inflow, driven by rainfall and human activities, was the primary factor affecting the inter/inner annual changes in Ebinur Lake. Furthermore, due to the valley effects, wind was found to be a critical factor in the diurnal changes in the water areas. This study should deepen the understanding of the variations of Ebinur Lake and benefit local water resource management.