Effects of ambient temperature on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality in highly polluted region

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies have established a clear connection between ambient air pollution, extreme temperatures, and an increased risk of mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, limited research has been conducted on the relationship between ambient temperature and COPD mortality in heavily polluted regions in China. This particular study examines the above effect using weekly data from the Yangtze River Delta area from 2013 to 2017. A Poisson generalized linear regression model with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was employed to assess the risk of COPD mortality associated with temperature and lag effects on a weekly basis. The analysis showed that colder temperatures posed a higher risk, with extreme cold temperatures (3 °C) having a significant impact on COPD mortality. On the other hand, extreme hot temperatures (32 °C) did not demonstrate significant short-term effects. The study also revealed that females and individuals already suffering from COPD were more susceptible to the adverse effects of extreme temperatures. These findings provide valuable insights into the association between ambient temperature and cause-specific mortality risk in highly polluted regions, which can help in managing the disease burden related to climate change, including extreme weather events such as heat waves and cold waves. • Extreme temperature significantly affected COPD mortality in winter and summer. • Inverse J-shaped curve was discovered between temperature and COPD mortality. • Cold effect was strongest at lag 1–2 week and hot effect was strongest at lag 0. • Females were found to be more vulnerable to extreme low and high temperatures.