A new approach for estimating trade elasticities and measuring the productivity effects associated with trade

Although there is an extensive literature on the measurement of total factor productivity (TFP) and its decomposition, the benefits of international trade for aggregate TFP have been less frequently studied. Combining the theoretical trade models and the so-called proxy-variable approach, this paper provides a new method for estimating trade elasticities based on a production model where trade elasticities and technological parameters are estimated simultaneously. Our proposed model is used to analyse the main determinants of the degrees of openness (embeddedness) of countries and sectors. Using data from the World Input-Output Database, we find that the pecuniary productivity gains attributable to embeddedness tend, on average, to offset its effect on sectors' underlying productivity. We also use the model to measure the different factors affecting productivity changes due to the Covid-19 pandemic. We find that the trade-related consequences are important in explaining the contraction in countries’ productions. • We propose a novel production approach to estimating trade elasticities. • Our trade elasticities fall within the range of those estimated in the literature. • We explore the dual roles of openness and embeddedness as TFP drivers or barriers. • TFP increases with openness, though with sectoral and country differences. • Tradable sectors were the most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic shock.