Regulatory, socioeconomic, and meteorological predictors of harvest in marine recreational fisheries

Abstract Objective Open-access marine recreational fisheries are a major source of fishing mortality in the United States. These fisheries are difficult to manage, as anglers change their behavior in response to regulations, socioeconomic influences, and weather. Previous studies have suggested that regulations tend to become more restrictive to reduce fishing mortality. Here, we considered how regulatory, socioeconomic, and meteorological factors influence harvest. Methods We collected the regulatory histories for 20 species in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Historical trends in regulations were analyzed using linear models. The daily harvest rate per species from 1997 to 2018, in defined time and geographic units, was analyzed for each species using Bayesian generalized linear models. Result Regulations tended to become more restrictive over time. The daily harvest rate of each species was influenced by a combination of regulatory, socioeconomic, and meteorological variables, suggesting a need for a broader consideration of nonregulatory factors when tailoring regulations. The influence of regulatory variables on daily harvest varied in sign among species; socioeconomic variables that had been previously demonstrated to influence recreational fishing participation had various associations with daily harvest. Additionally, as the number of days in the regulatory period decreased, daily harvest increased, indicating that anglers strategically modify their behavior in response to regulatory changes. Only some socioeconomic factors previously shown to determine angler participation were associated in the predicted direction with harvest. Finally, harvest changed in response to environmental factors, especially air temperature. Conclusion Bag limits and size limits were often not associated with harvest or were often in the direction not predicted. The efficacy of seasonal restrictions is limited by changes in angler behavior, and the efficacy of regulations designed to manage harvest is species-specific. Socioeconomic and meteorological factors are associated with harvest. Hence, effective regulations must be more tailored to the fishery and the socioeconomic and environmental context.