Response of the upper ocean to northeast Pacific atmospheric rivers under climate change

Atmospheric rivers are important transport vehicles for Earth’s water cycle. Using a high-resolution, eddy-resolving Earth System Model, atmospheric river impacts on the upper ocean are investigated by analyzing historical and climate change simulations. For atmospheric rivers along the North American coastline, strong winds cause significant dynamic and thermodynamic upper ocean responses. They push ocean water towards the coast, measured by sea surface height, a process that is amplified under climate change. Mixed layers are deeper upstream of atmospheric rivers, and shallower downstream, however for climate change, shoaling downstream is subdued. Air-sea heat fluxes tend to promote ocean cooling upstream and warming downstream, although different regions have different climate change heat flux signals. Southern California heat flux changes due to warming are driven by evaporative processes and strengthen the ocean responses seen in historical simulations. The regions north are primarily dominated by sensible heat flux changes and counter the historical patterns. Climate change intensifies Northeast Pacific atmospheric rivers, pushing ocean water towards coasts, cooling upstream and warming downstream, influenced by evaporative processes in Southern California and sensible heat northward, according to results from a high-resolution Earth System Model for the response of ocean to atmospheric rivers under global warming.