‘The caliphate will last for thirty years’: polemic and political thought in the afterlife of a prophetic ḥadīth

Abstract The Prophetic ḥadīth ‘The caliphate will last for thirty years, then it will be kingship’ is one of the key proof texts for the Sunni doctrine of the ‘rightly guided caliphs’. While modern scholarship has examined its origins and transmission during the first two centuries of Islam, the political discussions that emerged from it after the crystallization of Sunnism in the third/ninth and fourth/tenth centuries have not received adequate attention. By examining ḥadīth compilations and commentaries, theological treatises, and historical chronicles, this article maps out the various ways in which Sunni Muslim scholars have engaged with the ḥadīth. It argues that in addition to employing the ḥadīth as a polemical tool against Shiʿi political claims, most Sunni scholars through the Mamluk period sought to circumvent its literal meaning out of reluctance to concede that a legitimate caliphate was limited to the first four caliphs. But in doing so, they were also hard-pressed to define what a true caliphate entailed. The ensuing discussions surrounding the ‘thirty-year ḥadīth’ often revolved around the political ideals of consensus, justice, and piety. They also shed light on the intricate connection between historiographical considerations and political thought in medieval Islam.