Extreme rainfall and soil water consumption differences increase yield shedding at lower fruiting branches, reducing cotton water productivity under different sowing dates

Improvement of cultivated cotton adaptability to extreme climate events under climate change promotes sustainable cotton production. Extreme rainfall leads to a significant decrease in cotton yield, which may be related to changes in soil water consumption (SWC) and the vertical distribution of yield, but relevant research is still scarce. Here, a two-year cotton sowing date experiment was conducted in which geostatistics, sensor technology, the spatial grid method, and principal component analysis were combined to analyze cotton utilization of soil water during extreme rainfall (2021) and normal (2022) years. The reasons for cotton yield reduction under extreme rainfall and strategies to improve cotton production adaptability to extreme rainfall were discussed. Under extreme rainfall, the morphogenesis and reproductive organ development of cotton were inhibited. The accumulation of SWC and its relationship with the biomass accumulation of cotton on different sowing dates under extreme rainfall exhibited nearly opposite characteristics to those in a normal year. Simultaneously, the two-year yield showed the opposite trend with the change in sowing date. There existed a trade-off strategy for the vertical distribution (i.e., on the upper, middle and lower fruiting branches) of cotton yield. Extreme rainfall reduced the yield at lower fruiting branches and increased the boll-forming rate of the upper fruiting branches, which was closely related to seed cotton yield, lint yield and water productivity (WP). Optimizing the cotton sowing date (early sowing should be appropriate in this study) may improve the adaptability of cotton production under extreme rainfall, but further long-term studies are needed. This study highlights the critical practice of climate-smart agriculture and has reference value for the sustainable development of cotton production. ● Extreme rainfall inhibits morphogenesis and reproductive organ development of cotton under different sowing dates. ● There was a trade-off strategy in the vertical distribution of cotton yield on the upper, middle and lower fruiting branches. ● Extreme rainfall, soil water consumption, and shedding on lower fruiting branches lead to reduced cotton yields and WP. ● Combining sowing date optimization and plant type control may enhance cotton adaptation to extreme rainfall.