Fuel Consumption Modeling for a VLCC Using Added Resistance Test Results and Operation Data in Seaways

Data-driven model for estimating fuel oil consumption in seaways is suggested using the model test results and operation data. The data-driven model requires the forecasted wind speed, direction, and the desired ship speed as inputs to predict the engine speed, power, and fuel oil consumption. The structure of the data-driven model is based on the deterministic model of added power of a similar vessel of which model test results in the calm water and head seas are accessible. For a given wind speed, the wind resistance and added resistance in irregular waves presented by Pierson-Moskowitz spectrum are computed to be applied to the propulsion performance prediction. The deterministic model takes a cubic approximation between the wind speed and engine speed. The model is tuned by actual operation data in seaways with various wind direction groups. The shaft power and fuel oil consumption estimation are added to the model to be validated with the operation data. The prediction model is validated with the operation data to confirm that the estimation of the engine speed is the most significant uncertainty source.