THE DYNAMICS OF RESIDENTIAL SORTING AND HEALTH: IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UNITED STATES

Abstract I estimate a dynamic location choice model using data on 3.7 million seniors from 2001 to 2013. Choices depend on preferences and beliefs regarding longevity and the future evolution of health and wealth in different locations. The model accommodates heterogeneous preferences. Willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) estimates for milder winters are relatively uniform and positive. WTP for cooler summers exhibits heterogeneity. Under a “business as usual” climate change counterfactual, 1.9% of individuals would change their location choices. Annual WTP to avoid the climate change counterfactual varies across locations and types from −$1,191 to $3,944 with an average of $1,855 (USD 2000).