Studying the Impact of Social Disorder on Societal Security: Focusing on Resilience in Societal Security

This study analyzes the impact of social disorder on societal security, proposing that, contrary to traditional security concepts, social disorder may positively influence societal security. Using fixed-effects models and instrumental variable analysis on country-specific time series data, we find that social disorder, while having short-term negative effects, ultimately enhances societal security by fostering social infrastructure development. Specifically, using secondary school enrollment as an instrumental variable, I identify a mechanism where social disorder leads to improved educational infrastructure, thereby increasing the resilience of societal security. The study reveals that social disorder initially correlates negatively with life expectancy and positively with infant mortality rates, but these trends reverse over time, suggesting a complex, non-linear relationship. The findings challenge conventional perspectives on security, emphasizing the importance of long-term, resilience-focused approaches in security policy formulation.