Correlation analysis of the long-term interplay of cosmic rays, solar activity, and solar irradiance

Abstract This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the interplay between solar irradiance variability, solar activity, and cosmic rays over an extensive period from 1950 to 2023, well beyond the scope of previous research that focused on fewer solar cycles. Besides, using a robust dataset, we investigated the correlation between solar activity, represented by sunspot numbers, and the total solar irradiance, alongside the influence of cosmic rays. In this respect, our methodology incorporated sophisticated statistical techniques, including correlation analysis and linear regression, in order to elucidate the complex relationships among these variables. We identified a strong positive correlation between solar activity and total solar irradiance <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mfenced close=")" open="("> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>r</mml:mi> <mml:mo>≈</mml:mo> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.95</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:mfenced> </mml:math> , together with a significant anti-correlation between solar activity and cosmic rays <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mfenced close=")" open="("> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>r</mml:mi> <mml:mo>≈</mml:mo> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.72</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:mfenced> </mml:math> as well as cosmic rays and total solar irradiance <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mfenced close=")" open="("> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>r</mml:mi> <mml:mo>≈</mml:mo> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.67</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:mfenced> </mml:math> . As a consequence, the results of this study offer new insights into the long-term solar influence on climate through cosmic rays, enhancing our understanding of the Sun-Earth dynamic over prolonged periods. Likewise, the extended time series and the analytical framework developed in this study pave the way for further research into related phenomena, including the effects of cloud cover and potential links between cosmic rays and climate change.