Élasticités et effet rebond des véhicules légers au Canada

Although reducing greenhouse gas emissions is an imperative, environmental policies can run into two pitfalls: the rebound effect and inelastic demand for gasoline. If a vehicle is more fuel-efficient but is used more often, this reduces the expected energy savings (rebound effect). Similarly, increasing the price of gasoline via carbon pricing has little effect on demand if it is not very sensitive (inelastic) to price. To determine the value of these parameters for light vehicles in Canada, I use data for the ten provinces between 2000 and 2019 to estimate a simultaneous three-equation model of aggregate demand for kilometers traveled, vehicle fleet and fuel efficiency. While the rebound effect is worth 9 % in the short term and 30 % in the long term, gasoline demand is found to be inelastic in both cases. These values are broadly consistent with those found in the literature. A rise in gasoline prices therefore reduces purchasing power rather than consumption. Similarly, in the long term, a 10 % increase in fuel efficiency would increase distance travelled by 3 %.