Evaluation of the Antecedent Saturation and Rainfall Conditions on the Slope Failure Mechanism Triggered by Rainfalls

The stability analysis of rainfall-induced slope failures considers a number of factors including the characteristics of the rainfall, vegetation, geometry of the slope, unsaturated soil characteristics, infiltration capacity, and saturation degree variations. Amongst all these factors, this study aims to investigate the effects of the antecedent rainfall and saturation conditions. A numerical modeling study was conducted using finite difference code software on a representative slope geometry with two different soil types. Two scenarios were followed: The first involved the application of three different rainfall intensities for varying initial saturation levels between 40% and 60%, representing the antecedent saturation conditions. The second scenario involved modeling successive rainfalls for a typical initial saturation degree of 50%. The impact of antecedent rainfall was assessed by determining the time required for failure during the application of a main extreme rainfall after a preceding rainfall of varying durations. Consequently, a zone of susceptible time for failure was suggested for use as a criterion in hazard management, allowing for the tracking of rainfall and its duration through the proposed chart for potential failures. Once the anticipated critical rainfall intensities have been determined through a meteorological analysis, a risk assessment for a specific slope can be conducted using the proposed practical procedure. Accordingly, a control mechanism may be established to detect the potential for a natural hazard. Furthermore, the proposed procedure was applied to a case study, whose modeling insights were in harmony with the real conditions of the slope failure. Thus, this demonstrated the significance of the antecedent conditions in modeling landslides triggered by rainfalls.