The biogeochemical model Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 provides plausible and accurate simulations of the carbon cycle in central European beech forests

Abstract. Process-based ecosystem models are increasingly important for predicting forest dynamics under future environmental conditions, which may encompass non-analogous climate coupled with unprecedented disturbance regimes. However, challenges persist due to the extensive number of model parameters, scarce calibration data, and trade-offs between the local precision and the applicability of the model over a wide range of environmental conditions. In this paper, we describe a protocol that allows a modeller to collect transferable ecosystem properties based on ecosystem characteristic criteria and to compile the parameters that need to be described in the field. We applied the procedure to develop a new parameterisation for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) for the Biome-BGCMuSo model, the most advanced member of the Biome-BGC family. For model calibration and testing, we utilised multiyear forest carbon data from 87 plots distributed across five European countries. The initial values of 48 new ecophysiological parameters were defined based on a literature review. The final values of six calibrated parameters were optimised for single sites as well as for multiple sites using generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and model output conditioning that ensured plausible simulations based on user-defined ranges of carbon stock output variables (carbon stock in aboveground wood biomass, soil, and litter) and finding the intersections of site-specific plausible parameter hyperspaces. To support the model use, we tested the model performance by simulating aboveground tree wood, soil, and litter carbon across a large geographical gradient of central Europe and evaluated the trade-offs between parameters tailored to single plots and parameters estimated using multiple sites. Our findings indicated that parameter sets derived from single sites provided an improved local accuracy of simulations of aboveground wood, soil, and litter carbon stocks by 35 %, 55 %, and 11 % in comparison to the a priori parameter set. However, their broader applicability was very limited. A multi-site optimised parameter set, on the other hand, performed satisfactorily across the entire geographical domain studied here, including on sites not involved in the parameter estimation, but the errors were, on average, 26 %, 35 % and 9 % greater for the aboveground wood, soil, and litter carbon stocks than those obtained with the site-specific parameter sets. Importantly, model simulations demonstrated plausible responses across large-scale environmental gradients, featuring a clear production optimum of beech that aligns with empirical studies. These findings suggest that the model is capable of accurately simulating the dynamics of European beech across its range and can be used for more comprehensive experimentations.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geoscientific model development
Published
2024-10-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7317-2024
Citations
4
Primary Topic
Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.84

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article

The biogeochemical model Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 provides plausible and accurate simulations of the carbon cycle in central European beech forests

Zoltán Barcza, Doroteja Bitunjac, Zuzana Sitková, Ján Merganič et al.
4 citations
Geoscientific model development
Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
1.84
article

The biogeochemical model Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 provides plausible and accurate simulations of the carbon cycle in central European beech forests

Zoltán Barcza, Doroteja Bitunjac, Zuzana Sitková, Ján Merganič, Daniel Kurjak, Laura Dobor, Jiří Novák, Michal Bošeľa, Tomáš Hlásny, Roland Hollós, Katarína Merganičová, Peter Fleischer, Pavel Pavlenda, Hrvoje Marjanović, Maša Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Dóra Hidy
article en
4 citations

Abstract

Abstract. Process-based ecosystem models are increasingly important for predicting forest dynamics under future environmental conditions, which may encompass non-analogous climate coupled with unprecedented disturbance regimes. However, challenges persist due to the extensive number of model parameters, scarce calibration data, and trade-offs between the local precision and the applicability of the model over a wide range of environmental conditions. In this paper, we describe a protocol that allows a modeller to collect transferable ecosystem properties based on ecosystem characteristic criteria and to compile the parameters that need to be described in the field. We applied the procedure to develop a new parameterisation for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) for the Biome-BGCMuSo model, the most advanced member of the Biome-BGC family. For model calibration and testing, we utilised multiyear forest carbon data from 87 plots distributed across five European countries. The initial values of 48 new ecophysiological parameters were defined based on a literature review. The final values of six calibrated parameters were optimised for single sites as well as for multiple sites using generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and model output conditioning that ensured plausible simulations based on user-defined ranges of carbon stock output variables (carbon stock in aboveground wood biomass, soil, and litter) and finding the intersections of site-specific plausible parameter hyperspaces. To support the model use, we tested the model performance by simulating aboveground tree wood, soil, and litter carbon across a large geographical gradient of central Europe and evaluated the trade-offs between parameters tailored to single plots and parameters estimated using multiple sites. Our findings indicated that parameter sets derived from single sites provided an improved local accuracy of simulations of aboveground wood, soil, and litter carbon stocks by 35 %, 55 %, and 11 % in comparison to the a priori parameter set. However, their broader applicability was very limited. A multi-site optimised parameter set, on the other hand, performed satisfactorily across the entire geographical domain studied here, including on sites not involved in the parameter estimation, but the errors were, on average, 26 %, 35 % and 9 % greater for the aboveground wood, soil, and litter carbon stocks than those obtained with the site-specific parameter sets. Importantly, model simulations demonstrated plausible responses across large-scale environmental gradients, featuring a clear production optimum of beech that aligns with empirical studies. These findings suggest that the model is capable of accurately simulating the dynamics of European beech across its range and can be used for more comprehensive experimentations.

Geoscientific model developmentVol. 17(20)
Eötvös Loránd University (HU), Magyar Agrár- és Élettudományi Egyetem (HU), Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ), Slovak Academy of Sciences (SK), Institute of Landscape Ecology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SK), Technická univerzita vo Zvolene (SK), National Forest Centre (SK), Forestry and Game Management Research Institute (CZ), HUN-REN Centre for Agricultural Research (HU), Croatian Forest Research Institute (HR), Agricultural Institute (HU)
European Commission, European Cooperation in Science and Technology, Hrvatska Zaklada za Znanost, Agentúra na Podporu Výskumu a Vývoja, Ministerstvo Pôdohospodárstva a Rozvoja Vidieka Slovenskej Republiky, European Regional Development Fund
Openalex Percentile: Top 14%
Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
1.84
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