Lack of identification of parameters in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model

Identifiability of the parameters is an important precondition for consistent estimation of models designed to describe empirical phenomena. Nevertheless, many estimation exercises proceed without a preliminary investigation into the identifiability of their models. As a consequence, the estimates could be essentially meaningless if convergence to the ‘true’ parameters is not guaranteed in the pertinent problem. We provide some evidence here that such a lack of identification is responsible for the inconclusive results reported in recent literature on parameter estimates for a certain class of nonlinear behavioral New Keynesian models. We also show that identifiability depends on the subtle details of the model structure. Hence, a careful investigation of identifiability should precede any attempt at estimation of such models.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Published
2024-10-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104972
Primary Topic
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Lack of identification of parameters in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model

Thomas Lux
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
article

Lack of identification of parameters in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model

Thomas Lux
article en

Abstract

Identifiability of the parameters is an important precondition for consistent estimation of models designed to describe empirical phenomena. Nevertheless, many estimation exercises proceed without a preliminary investigation into the identifiability of their models. As a consequence, the estimates could be essentially meaningless if convergence to the ‘true’ parameters is not guaranteed in the pertinent problem. We provide some evidence here that such a lack of identification is responsible for the inconclusive results reported in recent literature on parameter estimates for a certain class of nonlinear behavioral New Keynesian models. We also show that identifiability depends on the subtle details of the model structure. Hence, a careful investigation of identifiability should precede any attempt at estimation of such models.

Journal of Economic Dynamics and ControlVol. 168
Universitat Jaume I (ES), Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (DE)
Generalitat Valenciana
Openalex Percentile: Top 68%
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
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